DES MOINES ? The Santorum Surge? It?s hard even to say it without cracking a smile.
The notion of former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum coming from out of nowhere to be a major factor in Republican presidential politics does indeed sound a bit like a practical joke being played on the political class?conservative activists desperately but so far ineffectually looking for a credible alternative to Mitt Romney, and political reporters praying for a long, bloody nomination battle rather than a swift, buzz-killing coronation.
Continue ReadingDMR pollster: Santorum rising
But, at least during the dwindling hours before Iowa caucus voting Tuesday night, Santorum?s relentless and indignity-filled efforts over the past year have finally have earned him the right to be taken seriously.
It took a rapid rise in the latest polls?validated most dramatically by the release of the influential Des Moines Register Iowa Poll showing him in third place and closing fast?to get anyone to notice, but Santorum?s credentials as a plausible anti-Romney conservative have been hiding in plain sight.
He is a genuine social conservative, for instance, without Michelle Bachmann?s tendency for erratic statements. The grandson of a coal miner and Italian immigrant, with a record of winning blue-collar support in his home state, Santorum has a better claim to be the populist alternative to Romney?s establishment-powered campaign than either Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry.
And unlike those two, it seems Santorum may have something else: Good timing.
Ann Selzer, who runs the Iowa poll, said in an interview she was taken aback over four days of polling late last week to see Santorum?s support take an ?astonishing jump? before her eyes. On the first day of polling, Dec. 27, he registered only ten percent in calls to likely caucus-goers. By the last night, the 30th, he was drawing 22 percent. Cumulatively, the full poll showed him drawing 15 percent, compared to 24 percent for Romney and 22 percent for Ron Paul.
But Selzer said the poll showed Paul bleeding support fast and Romney stationary. Santorum, by contrast, is taking advantage of an unusually fluid electorate to gain support at a time when it is too late for rivals to shoot him down with a blast of negative messaging: Any TV commercials to air before Jan. 3 voting have already been made and sent to the stations.
?He?s never been at the top of the leader board,? Selzer told POLITICO. ?He?s never had the negative scrutiny that comes with that. He may have found exactly the right moment to put everything into gear and move forward aggressively?and there?s very little time for the candidates to respond and take him down a notch or two.?
While Santorum now leads among the ?born-again, evangelical vote,? Selzer said this year?s poll showed jobs and the economy, not culture wars, to be overwhelmingly the top issues among Iowa Republicans. At every stop on the Iowa trail, with an itinerary heavy on small towns, Santorum talks about his plan to revitalize manufacturing. He also reminds Iowans that the general election will be fought in places like Ohio and Michigan, and that he?s the candidate in the race with a record of winning over such voters.
?Has anybody in this race ever run as a conservative and won an area like the states we need to win?? Santorum said in Pella Saturday, adding of his opponents: ?None of them have run as a conservative and had to get Democratic votes.?
National Review editor Rich Lowry called Santorum ?the great paradox of the Republican field: At a time when primary voters say they are desperate for a candidate of conviction and consistency, Santorum is both on a range of issues, yet he hasn?t had a proverbial moment.?
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